Author – Ritesh Ranjan: A major Nagaland University GIS Study has revealed alarming environmental changes in Kohima district, highlighting forest loss, rising temperatures, and increasing seismic vulnerability. The study, published in Springer’s Environmental Monitoring & Assessment, warns that Northeast India may face severe environmental and geological disasters if immediate policy action is not taken.
The research was conducted by Dr. Khrieketouno Belho, Prof. M.S. Rawat from Nagaland University, and Dr. Pradeep Kumar Rawat from Uttarakhand Open University. Their GIS-based analysis shows that Kohima district lost 12% of its natural landscape over the past 20 years due to urban expansion, deforestation, and climate change.
This Nagaland University GIS Study is now being considered a major policy blueprint for sustainable development in the Northeast Himalayan region.
Forest Loss and Urban Expansion: A Growing Crisis
According to the Nagaland University GIS Study, natural land cover in Kohima — including forests, scrublands, and water bodies — declined from 93.93% to 81.86% over two decades. This rapid environmental change is primarily driven by:
- Urban expansion in Kohima
- Jhum (shifting) cultivation
- Road construction and hill cutting
- Population growth and infrastructure development
The study used NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) data to track vegetation loss, showing a sharp decline in green cover across the district.
Experts warn that this level of deforestation can lead to landslides, floods, and biodiversity loss, especially in fragile Himalayan ecosystems.
Rising Temperatures and Climate Change Impact
The Nagaland University GIS Study also found that Kohima’s temperature is rising by 0.13°C per year, a significant increase for a hill district. Climate analysis using IMD data showed changing rainfall patterns and warming trends.
This temperature rise may lead to:
- Increased landslides during monsoon
- Water shortages
- Crop failure for hill farmers
- Loss of biodiversity
- Increased urban flooding
Researchers describe this as a “double impact” — human activities combined with climate change accelerating environmental degradation in Northeast India.
Seismic Danger: Kohima Lies in a High-Risk Zone
One of the most concerning findings of the Nagaland University GIS Study is seismic vulnerability. The study identified:
- 1,100 fault zones
- Around 27 micro-earthquakes per year
- High slope instability zones
- Urban areas expanding into seismic risk zones
Nagaland lies in Seismic Zone V, the highest earthquake risk zone in India. With rapid urbanization and hill cutting, the risk of earthquake-related disasters is increasing.
Researchers warn that unplanned construction on hill slopes could lead to major damage if a strong earthquake hits the region.
Root Causes: Jhum Cultivation, Urbanization, and Climate Change
The Nagaland University GIS Study identifies three major causes of environmental degradation:
1. Jhum Cultivation
Shifting cultivation is estimated to affect 20,000 hectares of land per year in Northeast India. While it is a traditional practice, reduced fallow periods are causing permanent forest loss.
2. Urbanization
Kohima’s rapid expansion is leading to hill cutting, slope destabilization, and increased landslide risk.
3. Climate Change
Rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns are increasing flood and landslide risks across the Northeast Himalayan region.
Together, these factors are creating what researchers call a “Triple Degradation Crisis” — ecological, geological, and climate-related risks combined.
Policy Recommendations from the Nagaland University GIS Study
The Nagaland University GIS Study provides several policy recommendations for the government and planning agencies:
Immediate Action Plan
- GIS-based early warning systems for landslides and earthquakes
- Transition from jhum cultivation to agroforestry
- Slope protection rules under Smart City projects
- Community-based forest restoration
- Landslide insurance for hill communities
The study also suggests creating state-level GIS monitoring cells across Northeast India to track environmental changes in real time.
Why This Study Matters for Northeast India
The Northeast Himalayan region is one of the most environmentally fragile regions in the world. The Nagaland University GIS Study warns that if current trends continue, the region could face:
- Major floods
- Landslides
- Crop failures
- Tourism losses
- Migration from hill areas
Nagaland’s tourism industry alone, worth ₹5,000 crore, and nearly 10 lakh hill farmers could be affected by environmental instability.
This study is now being seen as a model for environmental monitoring, and similar GIS-based monitoring systems are being considered for other Himalayan states.
Conclusion: A Race Against Time
The Nagaland University GIS Study is a wake-up call for policymakers, environmentalists, and citizens. Kohima’s environmental degradation, rising temperatures, and seismic risks show that the Northeast Himalayan region is at a critical turning point.
If immediate action is not taken, the region could face a major environmental crisis in the coming decades. However, with GIS technology, sustainable land-use planning, and community participation, the damage can still be controlled.
The message from researchers is clear: Use geospatial technology now, or face environmental disaster later.
FAQs
1. What is the Nagaland University GIS Study about?
The Nagaland University GIS Study analyzes land use change, forest loss, climate trends, and seismic risks in Kohima district using geospatial technology.
2. How much forest has Kohima lost?
According to the study, Kohima lost around 12% of its natural landscape over the last 20 years.
3. Why is Kohima at earthquake risk?
Kohima lies in Seismic Zone V, and the study identified 1,100 fault zones and frequent micro-earthquakes in the region.
4. What are the main causes of environmental damage in Kohima?
The main causes include jhum cultivation, urbanization, hill cutting, and climate change.
5. What solutions does the study suggest?
The study recommends GIS monitoring systems, agroforestry, slope protection policies, and forest restoration programs.